突发性地面增温与临震前兆——以1988年澜沧、耿马7.6,7.2级地震为例   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

徐秀登  强祖基  赁常恭 《地震地质》1990,12(3):243

本文通过较多的地面温度资料分析,认为1988年11月6日澜沧、耿马地震前几天,震区及其周围大范围的突发性地面增温异常是一种临震前兆,总结了增温异常的时空演变规律与地震活动的关系,并对其形成机制提出初步想法  相似文献   

Effects of dynamic shear strength and time-histories stress analysis on newmark sliding block analyses     

LI Hong-jun  CHI Shi-chun  LIN Gao 《岩土力学》2006,27(Z1):1063-1068

A simplified procedure for evaluating aseismic stability of slope subjected to earthquake shaking, in which the effect of dynamic shear strength and time-history stress on the yielding angular acceleration of sliding block is taken into account, is presented. The fundamental feature of this procedure is the dynamic shear strength. The numerical computations are performed by using the proposed method. It is shown that the computed sliding displacement for a given core dam, with either method of dynamic shear strength properly considered, is more rational compared with the conventional computational results based on static shear strength.  相似文献   

Non-volcanic deep low-frequency tremors accompanying slow slips in the southwest Japan subduction zone   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5  

Kazushige Obara  Hitoshi Hirose 《Tectonophysics》2006,417(1-2):33

Non-volcanic deep low-frequency tremors in southwest Japan exhibit a strong temporal and spatial correlation with slow slip detected by the dense seismic network. The tremor signal is characterized by a low-frequency vibration with a predominant frequency of 0.5–5 Hz without distinct P- or S-wave onset. The tremors are located using the coherent pattern of envelopes over many stations, and are estimated to occur near the transition zone on the plate boundary on the forearc side along the strike of the descending Philippine Sea plate. The belt-like distribution of tremors consists of many clusters. In western Shikoku, the major tremor activity has a recurrence interval of approximately six months, with each episode lasting over a week. The tremor source area migrates during each episode along the strike of the subducting plate with a migration velocity of about 10 km/day. Slow slip events occur contemporaneously with this tremor activity, with a coincident estimated source area that also migrates during each episode. The coupling of tremor and slow slip in western Shikoku is very similar to the episodic tremor and slip phenomenon reported for the Cascadia margin in northwest North America. The duration and recurrence interval of these episodes varies between tremor clusters even on the same subduction zone, attributable to regional difference in the frictional properties of the plate interface.  相似文献   

3-D seismic structure of the source area of the 1993 Latur, India, earthquake and its implications for rupture nucleations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S. Mukhopadhyay  O.P. Mishra  D. Zhao  J.R. Kayal 《Tectonophysics》2006,415(1-4):1-16

The Latur earthquake (M_w 6.1) of 29 September 1993 is a rare stable continental region (SCR) earthquake that occurred on a previously unknown blind fault. In this study, we determined detailed three-dimensional (3-D) P- and S-wave velocity (V_p, V_s) and Poisson's ratio (σ) structures by inverting the first P- and S-wave high-quality arrival time data from 142 aftershocks that were recorded by a network of temporary seismic stations. The source zone of the Latur earthquake shows strong lateral heterogeneities in V_p, V_s and σ structures, extending in a volume of about 90 × 90 × 15 km³. The mainshock occurred within, but near the boundary, of a low-V_p, high-V_s and low-σ zone. This suggests that the structural asperities at the mainshock hypocenter are associated with a partially fluid-saturated fractured rock in a previously unknown source zone with intersecting fault surfaces. This might have triggered the 1993 Latur mainshock and its aftershock sequence. Our results are in good agreement with other geophysical studies that suggest high conductivity and high concentration of radiogenic helium gas beneath the source zone of the Latur earthquake. Our study provides an additional evidence for the presence of fluid related anomaly at the hidden source zone of the Latur earthquake in the SCR and helps us understand the genesis of damaging earthquakes in the SCR of the world.  相似文献   

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model     

lvaro Gonzlez  Miguel Vzquez-Prada  Javier B. Gmez  Amalio F. Pacheco 《Tectonophysics》2006,424(3-4):319

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.  相似文献   

The Gibraltar Arc seismogenic zone (part 2): Constraints on a shallow east dipping fault plane source for the 1755 Lisbon earthquake provided by tsunami modeling and seismic intensity     

M.-A. Gutscher  M.A. Baptista  J.M. Miranda 《Tectonophysics》2006,426(1-2):153

The Great Lisbon earthquake has the largest documented felt area of any shallow earthquake and an estimated magnitude of 8.5–9.0. The associated tsunami ravaged the coast of SW Portugal and the Gulf of Cadiz, with run-up heights reported to have reached 5–15 m. While several source regions offshore SW Portugal have been proposed (e.g.— Gorringe Bank, Marquis de Pombal fault), no single source appears to be able to account for the great seismic moment as well as all the historical tsunami amplitude and travel time observations. A shallow east dipping fault plane beneath the Gulf of Cadiz associated with active subduction beneath Gibraltar, represents a candidate source for the Lisbon earthquake of 1755.Here we consider the fault parameters implied by this hypothesis, with respect to total slip, seismic moment, and recurrence interval to test the viability of this source. The geometry of the seismogenic zone is obtained from deep crustal studies and can be represented by an east dipping fault plane with mean dimensions of 180 km (N–S) × 210 km (E–W). For 10 m of co-seismic slip an Mw 8.64 event results and for 20 m of slip an Mw 8.8 earthquake is generated. Thus, for convergence rates of about 1 cm/yr, an event of this magnitude could occur every 1000–2000 years. Available kinematic and sedimentological data are in general agreement with such a recurrence interval. Tsunami wave form modeling indicates a subduction source in the Gulf of Cadiz can partly satisfy the historical observations with respect to wave amplitudes and arrival times, though discrepancies remain for some stations. A macroseismic analysis is performed using site effect functions calculated from isoseismals observed during instrumentally recorded strong earthquakes in the region (M7.9 1969 and M6.8 1964). The resulting synthetic isoseismals for the 1755 event suggest a subduction source, possibly in combination with an additional source at the NW corner of the Gulf of Cadiz can satisfactorily explain the historically observed seismic intensities. Further studies are needed to sample the turbidites in the adjacent abyssal plains to better document the source region and more precisely calibrate the chronology of great earthquakes in this region.  相似文献   

地缘经济关系测度与分析的理论方法探讨--以云南省为例   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  

张学波  武友德  骆华松 《地域研究与开发》2006,25(4):34-39

文章首先简要分析了地缘经济学的发展进程和研究内容，提出以保护国家利益增强综合国力为主要研究目的的地缘经济理论在一定程度上可以指导不同级别区域经济合作策略的制定。然后在探究了地缘经济关系涵义的前提下，设计了地缘经济关系的测度体系，并用该方法对云南省地缘经济关系进行了数量测度和类型判别，进而对该省地缘经济关系进行了分析和评价，对经济发展提出了建议。  相似文献   

Site Effects Study in the Serravalle Village (NE Italy) by Means of Spectral Ratios Analyses Relatively to Multiple Reference Sites     

Andrea Restivo  Carla Barnaba  Alberto Michelini 《Natural Hazards》2006,39(1):31-49

The area of Serravalle, sited in the northern part of the town of Vittorio Veneto (TV), NE Italy, has been the target of a seismic microzonation campaign. 10 seismic stations have been deployed for a 7 months period to record in continuous mode. Three stations were installed on bedrock outcrops and seven on sedimentary sites with variable cover thickness. Spectral analyses have been performed on the collected data-set using the Generalized Inversion Technique (GIT, e.g. Andrews, 1986). In particular, spectral ratios have been calculated for each station relatively to the average of the three reference, bedrock sites. The spectral ratios provide quantitative estimates of the seismic motion amplifications which occur in each of the monitored sites. Two sites show high values of amplification, 5 times larger than signal amplitude at the reference sites, in correspondence of well discernible peak frequencies of 5 Hz. Results for the other stations show smaller amounts of site amplification spreading over a broad range of frequencies. Sites where the highest amplifications were recorded all lie on the left bank of the Meschio River and in areas farther away from its outlet into the plain correlating with the presence of thick layers of Quaternary deposits.  相似文献   

金沙江干热河谷区土壤侵蚀危险度评价——以云南元谋为例     

周红艺  熊东红杨忠 《山地学报》2006,24(B10):52-56

利用空间主成分分析方法，选取降水、坡度、植被、土地利用、土壤类型、人口、高程等作为评价指标，建立空间主成分评价模型Pi=0．78X1＋0．06X2＋0．05X3＋0．04X4，将研究区分为无险型、轻险型、危险型、强险型和极险型五种类型，较为准确地得到了危险度综合评价结果。因此，空间主成分分析模型，在土壤侵蚀危险程度评价方面的应用较为成功，是一种科学有效的研究方法。  相似文献   

The effects of hazard zone information on judgements about earthquake damage     

Michael Crozier  John McClure  Jessica Vercoe  Marc Wilson 《Area》2006,38(2):143-152

This study investigates the extent to which people's views on the causes and preventability of earthquake damage might be influenced by their degree of exposure to hazard as well as what information they have been given about the hazard. The results show that the provision of hazard zoning information influences judgements on preventability and causes of damage, but this effect depends on the degree of hazard faced by residents. In low hazard zones, information leads to the view that causes are manageable, whereas in high hazard zones information may induce a degree of fatalism. The use of public information in risk management needs to take into account the degree of risk faced by the recipients.  相似文献